From the NHC:

RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE MADE LANDFALL AT GALVESTON TEXAS AT ABOUT 210 AM CDT.

One of my co-workers took a few pictures of what's up at SPI.

Just got a quick email from a coworker at the island...

"can you believe the waves at the Island are up to 10 feet - and spilling over into the streets. No kidding."

The waves do look a bit rough on our KURV webcam.

The latest Hurricane Local Statement from the Galveston National Weather Service:

All neighborhoods... and possibly entire coastal communities... will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage... with massive destruction of homes... including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair.

As Ike continues to churn over the Gulf, it has already grown and surpassed Katrina in size and wind radius.

Ike's radius of tropical storm force winds is 275 miles,  and the radius of hurricane force winds is 115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively.

The other interesting, if not freakish feature is even though Ike has grown, and is covering quite a bit of territory, his surface winds are still that of a Category 1 storm, though, hurricane hunter aircraft are measuring Cat 2 winds aloft.

Storm surge will be a big problem with Ike when it makes landfall due to his size and wind radii.  Projections of 12-24ft or higher are not out of the question.

If Ike makes landfall as a Cat 3 (as is forecast), it will easily cause $20-$30 billion dollars in damage.  Ike's storm surge will be massive and very destructive.

After reviewing model data, forecasts discussions, and upper-level wind patterns, it appears the low-pressure system which I've been talking about for about week now will in fact be strong enough to pull Ike northward towards an area between Freeport and Houston.

The intensity forecast has come down from a landfall Cat 4, to a Cat 3.  This however is still considered a major hurricane.  Folks in the central and northern Texas coast will definitely be feeling the effects, and those north and east of where Ike makes landfall are in for a real rough time.

Incidentally, I received an email from Sergio Sanchez last night telling me he had received an email from Joe Bastardi (AccuWx) who was in absolute disbelief that Houston had yet to call an all out evacuation.  If this is true, it's disheartening to know that a city of Houston's size hadn't taken the storm serious enough to evacuate its population.  Given the storm is expected to hit Friday night/Sat morning, and with a population of 2.2 million, it may be a bit too late. The only thing to hope for is that Ike will weaken a bit as it makes landfall.  I saw this with Gustav a few weeks ago as it approached the Louisiana coast.  It entered an area of relatively cooler water and was subjected to some upper-level shear which kept the storm from intensifying.  Katrina had the same fate back in 2005 as it roared towards Louisiana/NOLA as a Category 5, but weakened to a Cat 3 upon landfall.   But, even at a Cat 3, we all remember the destruction.

Another key indication Ike will go northward is the BRO NWS forecast discussion mentioning a front that will be traversing the RGV by Monday.

...and while they still show some uniformity, they're not as tightly packed as they were in the previous run.  The "NAM" model projects Ike moving over the Valley.  Most others still focus near Corpus, and then further north.  (By the way, for reference - the IKE models link is located on the right side of this blog - under, appropriately enough, the "Links" section.)

The NAM isn't generally a reliable model, but it has gotten "lucky" a few times in the past.  The divergence of models even when the storm is about 2-3 days away indicates that things are still iffy.   While it's important to get a handle on where Ike is going as quickly as possible so decisions and planning can be made, one must remember that Ike isn't and hasn't been your typical hurricane.  He's been making his own rules, and doing his own thing.

It's too early to breathe a sigh of relief.

The latest landfall intensity for IKE is a Category 4 - 131-150mph sustained winds with higher gusts.

Should the intensity forecast be correct - What to expect in a Category 4:

Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

Remember, even if the NHC and model projections take Ike northward, any movement to the west, and we could easily experience high winds and torrential rains.  Continued monitoring is definitely a necessity given Ike's history of unpredictability.

Latest models just out show an even more northward trek for Ike.

Now predicting a Victoria to Houston landfall. While this sounds promising, no need to let our guard down just yet as Ike has fooled the model projections before.

After spending some time doing his damage in Cuba, Ike has re-emerged into open water again, and is now in the Gulf.

Now the question is, where will Ike make landfall?  Certainly, this storm has been tough to predict.  Models have been having trouble, and Ike could be considered one of the most pugnacious storms forecasters have had to deal with in a while.

Here's the basic upshot on Ike and where landfall MAY be.  Right now, Ike is being slightly influenced by a trough of low-pressure which has caused him to move w/nw.  As high-pressure moves in behind this trough, Ike should once again start heading towards the west.  Now here's the clincher on whether Ike will make landfall, north of the valley, in the valley or south....

Models are predicting yet another low pressure system nearing Ike as he approaches the Texas coast.  Most models are now thinking this trough may be strong enough to veer Ike northwestward -- between say, Corpus Christi and Houston.  If however, this trough is weaker than anticipated or moves fairly quickly, then Ike would resume a more westerly course.  Right now, (and it seems as always), it's tough to call.

The recent models seem to respond to the trough of low pressure and take Ike north of the Valley.  Though one model, seems to think the trough just isn't strong enough.

Which is it?  We'll just have to keep on monitoring.

One thing that seems to be coming together is Ike's intensity.  Most are calling Ike to strengthen into a major hurricane (strong category 3 or above).  The SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) and TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) seem to be conducive for further development.

Again, stay with KURV/KURV.com for the latest information.

Early this morning, the NHC projected landfall near the Rio Grande Valley.  A subsequent update, pushed the trajectory a bit north, just south of Corpus Christi, TX.

The latest model runs (8am), show the majority putting the RGV at risk.  However, as this is a fluid and dynamic weather situation, one cannot be 100% certain on Ike's future track at this time.

New models should be out soon, and with each release, a more distinct picture of where Ike may make landfall will be revealed.

For now, and based on current weather trends, it's best to prepare for Ike's arrival, as he could strike land anywhere between La Pesca, MX to Freeport, TX.

KURV continues monitoring and will enhance our programming and web coverage as necessary.

Ike is still menacing the western side of Cuba as he hugs the coast.  The already ravaged area, a result  from this fierce tropical season is no doubt struggling and will continue to for a while to come.

Ike is a Cat 1 and will remain at that category while he interacts with Cuba.  Once in the Gulf, intensity will increase gradually to at least a Cat 3.  Storm intensity is always "best guest" as many factors can influence a storm's health.  Shear, SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures -- which incidentally do not currently seem to be an inhibiting factor for further strengthening), proximity to land, dry air infiltration and so forth.

One thing is clear however, models focused on trajectory have been trending westard and southward.  I've noticed this trend for about a week now.  Monday (9/8) morning, models and the official forecast track were painting Houston, TX as the bullseye.  The latest model runs for the most part have shifted mostly due to a low pressure trough forecast to move across the central US.

Some models feel this trough may be strong enough to pull Ike north, but they are now in the minority.  The remaining models "think" the trough may be either weak or move quickly, thus allowing a mid-level ridge (high pressure) to take control over the northern Gulf.  The result?  A more westward track for Ike, hence as of the 10PM Central NHC advisory, he's heading towards Corpus Christi, TX.  The majority model group take Ike from near La Pesca, MX to Freeport, TX - putting the RGV in the middle.

We'll know more as time progresses, but, based on how the models have been trending westward (and southward), I wouldn't be surprised if future NHC tracks bring Ike towards the Valley.

Now is the time to start preliminary plans for either riding the storm out, or evacuation.  At the moment, Ike is forecast to be at least a Cat 3 hours before landfall.  Given our guessability to forecast storm strength, the exact intensity cannot be accurately forecast.

KURV News staff will be monitoring this developing weather situation and will change programming accordingly.  KURV.com already has begun its "Special Coverage" and will be enhanced if necessary.

Stay tuned.

Cuba has taken a terrible beating from Ike which crashed ashore in eastern Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Ike's winds have since weakened to Category 2 strength--100 mph--but are still strong enough to destroy the Cuba's electrical system and heavily damage the cities it encounters along the heavily populated east-central portion of the country. Ike's winds and rains of 6-12 inches will cause additional heavy losses to Cuban agriculture, and the storm should easily rank as one of the top-five most damaging storms in Cuban history. Ike is expected to track over Havana Tuesday morning, and the city's 2.2 million people can expect significant damage to the many poorly-built structures in the capital city. It will take Cuba a long time to recover from Ike.

Under influence from high pressure, Ike is expected to trek westward into the caribbean.  Following the periphery of this high, Ike should then start taking a w/nw direction and eventually make his way to the central GOM.

Forecast models and projections have Ike moving towards Houston, though it appears landfall could be a bit south of there.

It is important to note that forecast models and projections have been trending westward since last week where originally Florida and eventually the Carolinas were at one time in Ike's sight.  Right now, the "Cone of Impact" is between the RGV and western Louisiana.

Latest models

 

Gustav made landfall around 70 miles SW of New Orleans, LA this morning as a powerful Category 2 storm.

Cold water (as mentioned in my previous entry) and upper-level shear weakened the storm as it edged near the coast.  The storm surge is subsiding and now basically wind and fresh-water flooding are the main concerns now.

As for New Orleans, it appears the city may have been spared and the levees are expected to hold.

Hanna is now a hurricane though, after looking at the satellite imagery, you'd think otherwise.  Nevertheless, it has all the characteristics of that classification.  Current models move Hanna up through Eastern Florida and the East Coast.  However, given the uncertainty of Hanna's path, this trajectory could change.  Yet another storm to keep an eye on.

Ike has a good chance of becoming a large and dangerous major Cape Verdes-type hurricane, although our skill in predicting such things five days in advance is nil. The GFDL model makes Ike a Category 2 hurricane by Thursday, while the HWRF forecasts a Cat 4.

..and Josephine appears to be right behind.  The hurricane season peak is Sept. 16.  From the looks of it, it may have arrived a bit early.

At the time of this blog entry, Gustav is around 90 miles S/SE of New Orleans, LA.  I'm starting to notice a turn, or a jog if you will to the West in the last few frames of the New Orleans Radar loop.  It looks like NOLA may be spared the full brunt of the storm.  That's not to say it won't feel the effects, but, it looks like at this time, it won't be as bad as anticipated.

Houma, LA and surrounding areas looks to be Gustav's next target right now.  While the storm is still categorized as a category 3, I've noticed the overall cloud pattern start to decrease a bit.  It could be that Gustav is edging away from the "loop" which is basically an area of deep warm water.

The Gulf in general has quite a bit of warm water, no doubt.  But, this current of very warm water below the surface acts like an extra "punch" of fuel for a hurricane.  We saw this effect when Gustav neared Cuba where he rapidly intensified to a category 4.

As he passed Cuba, he had plenty of opportunity to sip up some of this warm water, but, his forward speed was just too quick.  Now that Gustav is nearing the upper Gulf coast, the "loop" influence is all but gone.

Gustav is forecast to make landfall sometime mid-morning or early afternoon today. 

Gustav apparently suffered more weakening than expected when he traversed Cuba yesterday.  The intensity forecast called for a slight decrease, but, obviously that wasn't the case.  This could prove to be some good news for those in the upper Gulf Coast.

Instead of a Category 4 or 5 hurricane, the latest projection shows Gustav making landfall as a Category 3.  Still, this is nothing to sneeze at.  Katrina made her official landfall near New Orleans as a Category 3 and we all remember the destruction that followed.  It is therefore with good reason that mandatory evacuations were issued for that area.

As for us here in the valley, as Gustav heads Northwest, we will be on the dry side of the storm.  With that said, we'll be under partly cloudy to sunny skies and temperatures heading up to and a little above the century mark starting Monday, and lasting say until Wednesday or so before things settle back down to normal for this time of year.

The future track of Gustav is still up in the air.  Some models have the storm stalling over North Texas and dying.  Others have it turning towards the Southwest as it weakens, and one model has it going back to the GOM and becoming a Texas coast storm.  Again, it's all wait and see and something that should continue to be monitored after Gustav hits land.

Projections for Hanna currently indicate this could be an East Coast storm.  Still quite a bit of uncertainty and again, something that needs to be watched.

Gustav ripped through Cuba with 145mph winds and a storm surge estimated to be 18-23 feet.  25 inches of rain is expected as well.

Models are starting to unite on the initial landfall in Central Louisiana. However, anywhere between Galveston and Mississippi is fair game.  After this, some models predict some stalling and then a gradually turn towards the SW back into the GOM.  There is a distinct possibility that the storm may make a second landfall somewhere along the Texas coast or even Northern Mexico.

Intensity forecast calls for Gustav to increase to a Category 5 hurricane while it works its way towards the upper Gulf Coast.  However, a modest decrease in strength is expect before landfall - Modest being relative as Gustav is projected to be a Cat 4 storm by then.

It goes without saying that all this can change at a moment's notice.  Should the storm continue on its present course, it may appear S. Texas is out of the woods.  But, given the dynamic model consensus at this time, Gustav may just be stubborn enough to be an un-welcomed guest for us.

KURV is also keeping a watchful eye on Hannah.  This storm could also be a player for Florida, the upper-Gulf Coast or even Texas.  Of even more interest, she could affect Gustav and force him Southwest as well.

Many variables.  Many projections.  But nothing concrete.  We must continue to monitor Gustav and Hannah.

After the 2am Saturday morning advisory, an update was issued from the National Hurricane Center.  Hurricane Hunter observations, indicate Gustav has strengthen and is now a Category 2 hurricane.

Models have been meandering with most still showing a Louisiana landfall.  However, the 2am Saturday model projections show some of the models recurving Gustav towards the Southwest almost immediately after landfall.  Of interest again is the UKMET model which shows a quicker SW turn near the Central Gulf and then places Gustav about 150-200 miles from Brownsville, TX.

It cannot be stressed enough that the track of this storm is still highly uncertain.  All interests along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of Gustav.

Regarding intensity... It is quite probable that Gustav will strengthen as it continues to feed off the warm waters of the Caribbean, and eventually the GOM.  Given the CAT 2 status already achieved, there's not much doubt that the storm will strengthen.  However, the forecast at this time does hint at a little weakening as it approaches land.  Even so, Gustav is still expected to be a major hurricane.

Gustav has completed his trek over Jamaica and is now headed towards the warm waters of the caribbean.  The models are starting to diverge a bit on where they think Gustav is heading.  The GFS, GFDL and HWRF models show a Louisiana hit.  However, the NGFDL, NOGAPS and UKMET bend the storm westward towards Texas.  The NGFDL pushes Gustav near Houston, the NOGAPS puts the storm near Corpus Christi and the UKMET bends the storm southwestward and takes aim towards the Northern part of Mexico.

Which model is the right one?  Uncertain.  There are some variables to consider.  The models making Louisiana Gustav's final rest stop are basing their assumptions that the high pressure system near the Great Lakes won't be strong (or will weaken) thus allowing Gustav to take a more northerly track.  The other models predict the high pressure system will be stronger than forecast, thus giving Gustav a more westerly track.

Then, of course, there's the complicating factor of Gustav's strength.  The storm has increased in size and is starting to show an intimidating appearance.  Storms that grow quite strong tend to decide on their own where they're going to go; leaving other steering factors to the wind (no pun intended).

All these question marks pretty much say -- Texas residents should not let their guard down.  Gustav could very easily veer westward and become more of a threat.

Latest model runs

Interaction with land-primarily Haiti has caused Gustav to weaken a bit and is now a Tropical storm.  This however is temporary as he continues to move W/NW and is therefore forecast strengthen as he'll interact with warm waters.

The trajectory seems to be aligning from what models have shown. And looks like, for now, the storm is headed towards Louisiana.

As the NHC/TPC continuously reminds us, track forecasts 4-5 days in the future are uncertain and can vary upto 300 miles either way.

While it may appear at this point that the RGV has been spared, it's prudent that S. Texas residents continue to monitor the progress of this storm.

Hurricane Gustav rapidly intensified and is currently a Category 1 hurricane near Haiti.

Latest models show a pretty similar range of where Gustav will travel.  Varying in a degree of distance, most models point towards Louisiana with the GFDL and UKMET showing an upper-Texas coast direction and mid-lower Texas coast, respectively.

It's of interest to note that this tropical season, the favored model is the GFDL.  This model has been trending westward today.  Something to watch.

As for intensity.  Currently, Gustav's interaction with land is weakening the storm.  This appears to be short-lived as his path takes him into open waters and relatively low wind shear.   Current consensus is that by the time Gustav reaches the GOM, it should be a Cat 3 or higher storm.

The tree that took out our power lines in the middle of the storm


Our neighbor's tree was uprooted narrowly missing their house ... also we lost our flagpole


More trees fall on our street as the storm worsens.


The damage this morning ... trees along the canal embankment snapped like twigs.


The power pole snapped off close to the ground.


The first of two views of my street (Florida Ave.) this morning ... as you can see trees are covering the majority of the roadway.


The second view at the opposite end of the street (luckily our house is on the end with the only opening) this side of the street is closed off ... it looks like a bomb went off on our street. Trees from the canal embankment (about 9 or 10 if not more) have been snapped or uprooted ... this has taken out power poles and street lights.

Photos & captions credit: Andres Bocanegra

We are now taking steps to clean up after Dolly's visit. Hunkering down for two days at the office building and rushing to fix problems or update websites/blogs -- well, being tidy becomes a second priority.

We are no longer feeling the big winds or rains. Dolly has departed, or as some would prefer to say... "has left the building"... but not without doing some damage as the pictures and videos posted here can attest to.

We are STILL without power and are becoming creative with feeding our generator the much needed fuel to keep our broadcast and other equipment going.

We're assessing like I'm sure the rest of the valley is, whatever damage has been done, and getting those problems fixed up.

Some of you have emailed about this blog and whether it'll stay online and permanent. After debating for a bit, I've decided to make this a permanent part of our "Tropical Coverage 2008" page. The feedback for this blog has been overwhelmingly positive and I'd be a fool to take it down.

With that said, blog entries will be posted with less frequency, unless another tropical system starts to threaten and thereby will begin entries where I left off.

One final note: Even those the big bands of rain are gone; the winds have subsided - the threat of more rain and flooding hasn't diminished. Keep your guard up, and stay dry!

Credit: N/A

After hours of meandering, Dolly looks like she finally decided which way she was going to go. Interestingly, she's not following the NHC official track. Looks like she's taken a more NW path. However, as I've mentioned before, Dolly is a big storm, and even though she's heading out, we're still feeling the torrential rains, tropical storm winds and gusts.

Of even more interest I was reviewing the radar storm total estimates. McAllen and surrounding areas for the moment seem to have received between 6 - 8 1/2" of rain... and it's STILL RAINING.

14" - 20" inches mostly in the central portions of the Eastern valley. As if that wasn't enough, there's a splotch of cyan which estimates over 25" of rain! - right above Port Isabel.

These totals began on July 22 -- and here we are July 24 and I'm still hearing the rain coming down quite hard along with the howling winds. If the forecast of more rain is correct, flooding will definitely be a big issue, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Even after Dolly says her "Goodbye", her effects will be felt for a while and things may not be returning to normal that quickly.

Early July, the Valley received quite a bit of rain and for most of the area, brought us back to near normal on our drought defecit. With Dolly, it's safe to assume, we're in the rainfall surplus category for quite some time.

Power Loss update: We're coming up on nearly 8 hours or so with no actual juice from our electricity provider and have been running on generator.

Based on the latest radar loop, Dolly's "eye" appears to finally be filling in. While it has officially been weakening since landfall earlier today, the fact that this is occuring means, we could eventually see some relief from all the rain, wind and flooding that's been on-going for hours on end.

Incidentally, our area is still without power since my last entry. It's an eerie darkness outside.

and we still are experiencing this. Towards the end of the video we see a frog trying to keep out of Dolly's ferocious wrath.

If I were to give her a descriptive name... it would be "RELENTLESS!" -- Hours after landfall, she's still giving it all she's got. We've had to deal with some technical issues with our building which required our Engineers to go outside into the elements. Even with wind breakers, they came back pretty soaked remarking how it's gotten worse.

Winds still howl, gusts still creak the building, and the white noise of constant rain echoes throughout the building.

I'm looking at the radar, and she's inland, and yet -- the "EYE" is still well-defined. Even before Dolly became a named storm, it/she was a fighter when the National Hurricane Center first labelled her "Invest 94". Throughout her journey in the caribbean, with all the wind shear the system had to deal with and other factors that inhibited growth, Invest 94/Dolly just kept chugging - against all odds.

Even as she approached the Yucatan, and thereafter, she never really got her act together -- she was disorganized, ragged, but a fighter.

Now, it's as if she's saying -- "I didn't go through all this trouble to die quickly." She's relentless, and she's making sure S. Texas won't forget her anytime soon.

Credit: N/A

Credit: Carlos